What’s good, what’s good? I know, it’s been a while, but I’ve been busy, and, to be honest with you, the month of August is depressing. August is a movie dead zone. It marks the transition period between summer box-office blockbuster excitement and the autumn months of art-house Oscar hopefuls. Of course, as I say that, this August has happened to defy convention with the surprisingly robust openings of District 9 and Inglorious Basterds, proving how ‘plastic’ the social science of film distribution truly is. My hope is that the major studios will learn from the reinvention of August—that they’ll recognize that regardless of what the calendar says, people will line up to see refreshing, innovative films made by fearless directors—that you don’t have to make a sequel to generate box-office revenue—that if you just pick a number, any number, and stick it in the title, the movie will post numbers comparable to a sequel anyway.
Before I get started, I’d like to take this opportunity to ask you to become a member of Push The Box (www.pushthebox.blogspot.com). Currently, only six people are members, four of whom include family members and myself, and I find this statistic a little upsetting. I’m not exactly sure how things become “viral,” but I figure if I can get 50 members by the end of the week, that number will exponentially increase in the coming months, at which point the Chinese government will officially block my website. Thus, I’m starting a campaign, as of now, to “Get My Blog Blocked by The CHINA.”
Now that that’s settled, let’s get going. You know the deal…
Because the only two major releases this weekend are The Final Destination and Halloween II, Tarantino’s Inglorious Basterds, which opened to 38.1M last weekend (the #1 opening of his career), looks to scalp the rest of the competition again and remain at #1 on the depth charts. Met with mixed reviews and even disgust by a few major film critiques (suck it David Denby), Basterds defied all expectations and surely made the Weinstein Brothers happy. Whether it’s a good film or not, Basterds has created a lot of excitement and without the customary mid-to-late August release of a potential Oscar candidate (Seabiscuit, Little Miss Sunshine), it looks like adults looking for a more serious film to discuss at late summer cookouts will have to settle for a debate on the clout of Tarantino’s name vs. the quality of his movies. I expect Basterds to drop 35% in its second weekend to 25M, which may be enough to stay atop the charts.
“The Final Destination,” the fourth installment in the FD franchise, returns this weekend in 3,000 theaters and in the third dimension. New Line has been marketing the hell out of the film since well before the beginning of summer, which could potentially result in a respectable debut for the pic. The three previous Final Destination films have all grossed somewhere around 50M (total domestic), but New Line is clearly hoping the novelty of 3D will help boost the fourth installment to a final destination somewhere well beyond that figure. Fortunately, that won’t happen. The last FD film (and, by far, the worst) grossed 19M in February ’06, which is pretty much what I expect the latest pic to gross as well. With absolutely no famous stars to help boost its weekend take, inevitably horrendous reviews, and the competition of another fright flic in Rob Zombie’s Halloween II, The Final Destination will, hopefully, not gross more than 20M this weekend.
Rob Zombie’s latest foray into horror film making, Halloween II, opens in 3,000 theaters this weekend, and it could post big numbers. Two years ago, Halloween opened on this very weekend to 26.3M on its way to 58M domestically, but it didn’t face any stiff competition. It will be interesting to see how two very successful horror franchises—Halloween and Final Destination—compete against each other in a horror-deprived movie market. Will the 3D of Final Destination be too much for Halloween to handle, or will the Rob Zombie name carry the serial killer Michael Myers to deadly new heights? Honestly, among Basterds, FD 4, and Halloween Dose, there is so much blood, guts, and destruction that I have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen, aside from the fact that they’re all going to generate weekend grosses within the vicinity of 20-25M. If I had to pick a loser, I’d say it’s going to be FD4, which I could see dropping to an opening of 15M if the late August markets turns out to be too small for two slasher franchises.
Opening in a more limited release of 1,300 theaters, Focus Features looks to draw a crowd with Taking Woodstock, the story behind the creation of the famous rock festival. While Focus may have hoped that Taking Woodstock could have been the customary mid-to-late August potential Oscar candidate, it doesn’t look like it’s going to be, given the mixed reviews and serious lack of any marketing campaign whatsoever, which is a shame given the film’s director (Ang Lee) and star (Demetri Martin). In fact, it looks like it may be a long few weeks for Focus, as its next release, “9,” opens on September 9th (9-9-09), and I haven’t seen anything resembling a marketing campaign for that film either. I’ll give Woodstock a liberal 5M estimate, just because I like the guys at Focus and want to see them do well.
I may as well remind you again of the extreme importance in become a member of the blog so I can reach the ultimate goal of getting blocked by the China. It’s free to join, and, in doing so, you are also standing up for a free world. Free Membership = Free World, remember that.
