Box Office Forecast/Where Your Ticket Money Actually Goes- Weekend of 7/31/09

What’s good, what’s good? Thought you’d gotten rid of me on your homepage after I created Push The Box? (http://pushthebox.blogspot.com) Well, it looks like you won’t have space on your news feed to see the percentage breakdown of what shade of Khaki best matches Bobby's personality for one more minute as I take this opportunity to shamelessly plug Push The Box yet again. That’s right, this is the last time I will tag any of you in a facebook note… From now on I will simply post the link to Push The Box on my status when I publish a new forecast. Don’t worry, you can still read the forecasts as facebook notes if you so desire, but note I will not be tagging anyone in them. Alright then, you know the drill—let’s get started.

Marking his third directorial attempt, Judd Apatow’s “Funny People” opens in 3,000 theaters this weekend and hopes to be taken seriously at the box office. With a cast of Adam Sandler, Seth Rogen, Eric Banna, and Jonah Hill, the film certainly doesn’t lack in star power and should be able to find its way to solid numbers. The real question is whether or not Funny People can compare to last month’s “The Hangover,” which has officially become the most successful R-rated comedy of all time (248.9M). To put that number in perspective, the latest Star Trek film made 254M domestically, but it had a production budget of 150M compared to the Hangover’s budget of 35M! Pretty crazy, right? Now that we're on the subject, this may be a good time to digress a little and explain where your money actually goes when you buy that movie ticket so you can further understand the significance of a film’s box-office revenue. It’s gonna be a bit long, but you’ll be able to sound smart after you read it…

Let’s say you’re Paramount Pictures, the studio behind the latest Star Trek—You spent 150M to make the film, and every movie ticket costs exactly $10. Generally speaking, the movie theater is gonna take about 50% ($5.00) of that ticket cost for themselves, leaving Paramount with $5.00 per ticket sold. Your movie made 250M (total revenue) domestically, meaning you sold approximately 25 million tickets in the US. At $5/ticket, Star Trek, a box-office success, has made $125M (revenue) for Paramount Pictures, yet the movie cost 150M to make…

Wait a minute, what about foreign box-office? Star Trek cashed 125M worth of intergalactic traveler’s checks, and if we assume that ticket prices as well as the 50% cinema fee are universal, the film brought in $62.5M in revenue to Paramount from overseas. In that case, Paramount has grossed $125M (domestic) + $62.5M (foreign), equaling $187.5M. Not bad, right? Wrong. We forgot that a big movie like Star Trek costs a lot of money to market, and when I say “a lot,” I mean approximately the same amount as the total production budget ($150M!). At this point, Paramount has grossed (not profited) $187.5M and has spent $300M, meaning it’s in a $110M black hole. Unfortunately, it get’s worse. Star Trek debuted in 4,000 theaters and probably around 10,000 screens at a cost of about $1,500 per screen to copy and ship the film prints. There goes another $15M, I suppose.

Nearing the end of its theatrical run in our quasi-hypothetical movie distribution world, Star Trek has cost Paramount $125M, but things are not nearly as bad as they might seem. While a movie theater may charge Paramount 50% of the ticket cost, a very important number that’s not factored into that stat is the fee Paramount charges the theater to lease Star Trek. With big-budget summer blockbusters, distributors can charge outrageous leasing fees to the movie theaters, meaning a company like Paramount is really taking in about 70% ($7) out of each $10 ticket sold. If a theater is only making $3.00/ticket in Star Trek’s first week (the leasing rates are generally staggered by weeks of release), they’re losing money after you factor in the total costs of running a movie theater. Enter the 400% marked up concession prices…

So let’s just say that including the staggered leasing fees, Paramount has now grossed about $240M, and Star Trek is pulled from its remaining theaters. Paramount has still lost $60M, but because of Star Trek’s success in the box-office nonetheless, they will undoubtedly begin to make a profit once they begin to sell the film on DVD, On Demand, Pay Per View, Cable Networks, and Airlines. If the thought comes to mind that after $300M (at least) spent in production/marketing and a 12 week theatrical release, it seems a movie theater is simply a glorified concession stand, and a theatrical distribution is really just an enormous DVD marketing campaign, you’d be 100% right. That’s all the movie industry is. Now, maybe you can see why studios are so worried about pirated video? Sorry for the lengthy digression, but I felt like that was something I had to put out on the table for us to move forward in our relationship. (I just laughed for a long time when I read this last sentence. I’m very mature, I swear)

Going back to this weekend’s release of “Funny People,” I can guarantee it won’t be nearly as successful as “The Hangover.” First, Funny People is not exactly a funny movie. It’s a dramedy, not a comedy… and it’s also two and a half hours long, which doesn’t bode well for any non-epic/fantasy film. To be concise, I expect an opening of 31M from 3,000 theaters. (Check out www.george-simmons.com and watch the videos, they’re hilarious)

This is the first time I’ve ever heard of such a film, but apparently “Aliens in the Attic” is opening this weekend in 3,100 theaters. It looks ridiculous, but, then again, a movie about the hamsters from the blockbuster commercials made 31.7M last weekend and dethroned the quickly fading Harry Potter so anything’s possible. I’m going to say 18M… with an over/under of 40M. Finally, a horror movie called “The Collector” is opening this weekend in 1,300 theaters. It’s about a thief who breaks into a house at night only to discover that a psychotic murderer has already broken into (wait for it) the same exact house! My goodness, the odds of that! Imagine George Clooney or Brad Pitt in Ocean’s 11 breaking into a casino vault only to find Jigsaw from the Saw movies. Wait a second, it’s written by the writers of Saw IV and V?! It’s going to be horrifying! $4M, shoot me and then yourself if it makes a cent more.

I’d like to take this brief moment to retract whatever I said about Emma Watson in my last forecast. Emma Watson is arrogant, not hot, underdeveloped, and going to Brown. That's right, Brown. I can't believe it Emma. I was going to be your Ron Weasley. Now, unfortunately, I will personally make sure you are never in one of my movies and that you will act only in Michael Bay and Uwe Boll films for the rest of time. Do not turn your back on the fierce Columbia Lion. In other news, ladies, I’m available again.

Harry Potter Special Edition

What’s good, what’s good. Sorry, I took last weekend off, but it was definitely a Netflix weekend regardless. In that case, I hope you watched some good films because I did—The Talented Mr. Ripley, The Hurt Locker (not Netflix), My Blueberry Nights. You know the deal… I haven’t looked at any predictions, opinions, or tweets regarding this upcoming weekend’s potential box office draw. In fact, I haven’t even looked at my box office database (Rentrak Box Office Essentials) because my friends at Focus Features changed the password on the account I was using (this led to me angrily attempting to guess the password incorrectly five times, resulting in a temporary deactivation of the account). Seeing that I’m allowed four incorrect guesses each hour, I will reacquire that password, hopefully, in the near future, unless they were really in a sour mood and decided to change the username as well. Right then, let’s check out the upcoming box office.

You may be skeptical, but I’ve spoken to the executives at Warner Bros., and I have reason to believe that Harry Potter is returning to theaters today for his sixth feature film. Albeit, there still is about an hour remaining until the midnight screenings end so don’t be surprised if Warner Bros. decides to push the opening back another six months or instructs each theater to split its copy of the film in half, creating demand for the November release of “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince Part II: We Warned You in the Title.” All seriousness aside (anything’s possible), HP looks ready to charm the global box office this week with a Hagrid-esque performance.

It’s been exactly three weeks since the last summer action sequel, “Transformers: Michael Bay ‘10,” opened to a record 62M on a Wednesday, and, based on that “film’s” frighteningly steep decline in recent weeks, it’s safe to say the world is ready to jump back on the Summer-Sequel Express and return to Hogwarts. Although there have been five previous HP films, the only one we need to necessarily analyze is the most recent installment, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, because of its similar release date to The Half-Blood Prince. Phoenix, like Blood Prince (the prequel to “Carrie”), also opened on a Wednesday in the middle of July, grossing a then-record 44M on its opening day. That film went on to collect 140M in its first five days of release (Wed-Sun) and a total of 292M domestically. By comparison, last month’s “Transfat” opened to, once again, 62M on a Wednesday, cheating the public out of roughly 200M in its first five days of release (Wed-Sun) on its way to what will probably be 410M domestically (good enough for 8th all time domestic behind POTC: Dead Man’s Chest).

I hate to upset any Harry Potter fans, but I don’t think HP 6 can reach numbers like 410M domestically for a few reasons. First of all, Harry Potter doesn’t tend to do so well in the United States. The highest any HP film has grossed domestically is 317M, and that was the very first HP film, believe it or not. Surprisingly, out of the 4.4 Billion dollars the five HP films have grossed globally, only 1.4B of that total or 31% has been collected within our borders. Second, Harry Potter 6 is never going to see the type of repeat business some other tent pole releases might witness because it’s part of a very large franchise, and this one doesn’t happen to be the last book in the series. Let me explain: Fans often see a movie for a second time when there are either no plans to create a sequel (yet) or the movie is the last announced installment in a series, meaning that particular film represents the last time a customer can interact with a set of characters or story he/she loves—think Titanic, The Return of the King. Harry Potter 6, while it will see huge upfront demand, won’t last long because there are still two more Harry Potter films waiting to be released. In essence, the problem with adapting a seven-book franchise to the screen is that people will immediately begin to think about the next film in the series after they watch the previous book’s adaption. Third, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince isn’t a very exciting book. It’s merely filler—like our current Pope—an adequate means to a better end.

Yet, there are some reasons why I may be mistaken in estimating the life expectancy of the boy who lived. Not to be undervalued, the tomato-meter is currently showing a 95% out of 107 reviews for HP, meaning the film’s “staying power” could be stronger than previous installments. Aside from the film’s critical reception, we shouldn’t forget that it’s also been two years since the last Harry Potter film or book was released, and, quite frankly, the world needs some more Harry Potter & Co. Ever since WB decided to puss HP back from last November to today, extra buzz and excitement have been spreading around the pic, which can never be bad. Above all else, it’s imperative that HP attracts viewers who have never read the books if it wants to follow in the footsteps of Transformers with a five day opening of 200M. The film’s alleged “dark and sinister” mood should bring in a few illiterate action/effects junkies, and Emma Watson, while she’s certainly no Meagan Fox, is clearly attractive and could help too.

Opening in almost 4,300 theaters, I expect HP 6 to earn 58M on Wednesday en route to a Fri-Sun weekend gross of 90M and a Wed-Sun cume of 178M. In other news, I’d like to congratulate Emma Watson for choosing to attend Columbia next year. If you’re reading this, Emma, you know you want to find your real life Ron Weasley, and who better to play that role than myself? Red hair, boyish charm, athletic bod… need I say more?

July 4th Weekend

What’s good, what’s good. Welcome to another BO forecast (“It’s gonna smell!”—Ali Williams). It’s July 4th weekend, which means I get to witness my two favorite things in the world: Big numbers at the movies and angry vegetarians. Once again, I have not looked at any forecasts regarding this weekend’s box office slate—just reviews and Rentrak box office essentials. Alright then, let us forecast.

Taking advantage of the long weekend, Fox is releasing its third installment in its profitable “Ice Age” franchise: “The Dawn of the Dinosaurs.” I haven’t seen any of the Ice Age films, but from what I understand, “Dawn” chronicles the tale of a wooly mammoth, a saber-tooth tiger, and a sloth as they discover an underground world inhabited by giant dinosaurs. From time to time, we are also given the perverted pleasure of witnessing a curiously malleable squirrel’s repeated attempts at stealing an acorn as he miraculously survives a myriad of unfortunate events. In light of the film’s release, I do believe Michael Bay is, in fact, suing Fox for stealing his idea, frame by frame, for Transformers 3: The Guys Who Fell Got Back Up Again.

The first two mammal-made pics grossed 176M and 195M, opening to weekend takes of 46M and 68M, but they both opened in March (and not on Wednesday’s). The July 4th weekend, on the other hand, is one of the biggest weekends of the year, and I expect to see huge numbers from “Dawn.” I looked up the ten films that have opened to at least 25M on the July 4th weekend since 1999 and found their average opening weekend gross to be just north of 55M (Note: This pertains to the Fri-Sun frame, not Wed-Sun.) With Pixar’s “Up” quickly fading (it dropped over 40% last weekend), higher ticket prices for 3-D screenings, and an increasing number of young parents turning to alcohol in these difficult times, Ice Age could thaw out about 65M from Friday to Sunday and find itself somewhere in the vicinity of 95M from Wednesday-Sunday.

The second wide-release of the weekend is Michael Mann’s “Public Enemies,” starring Johnny Depp, that woman who won the academy award, and a glorified Keanu Reeves. The film follows hot on the path of John Dillinger, the infamous 1930’s bank robber who rose to fame as he stole from the rich and gave to himself. All in all, Dillinger supposedly robbed eleven banks, pretending to be a bank alarm salesman as well as a scout for Hollywood film locations. He also managed to escape from prison twice without using a Rita Hayworth poster or a chisel.

The closest comparison I see to this film is Ridley Scott’s “American Gangster,” which opened to 43.5M in 2007. Starring The Denzel and Russell Crowe, “Gangster” was also a crime-based period piece helmed by an acclaimed director. I don’t expect Enemies to open as big as Gangster for a few reasons. First of all, the trio of Denzel, Crowe, and Ridley Scott is a much bigger BO draw then that of Depp, Mann, and the ill-tempered batman. Second and most importantly, Public Enemies will not attract the lucrative African-American and Latino populations. Time and again, we’ve seen the BO power of the black population, as witnessed by the 30M+ openings of multiple Tyler Perry films, but white American bank robbers, as opposed to black/Latino American gangsters, just won’t attract such broad demographics. Not surprisingly, the California gross of American Gangster (20.8M) more then doubled the total gross of the film in any other state, including New York (9.3M). In fact, three of the top four grossing states for the film include California, Texas, and Florida—and it doesn’t take a sociologist to figure out why.

Another element that could really hurt PE’s chances is the film’s disappointingly flat critical reception. Although Manohla Dargis gave it a NY Times critique’s pick, most other highly influential film critiques have not been as generous with their praise. Any Michael Mann film, aside from Miami Vice, is going to live and die by its reviews and word-of-mouth as it takes aim at a slightly older and more mature population. Sitting at a lackluster 61% on the “tomato-meter,” Public Enemies may not pick up enough steam in time to escape the authorities on a heavily crowded Independence Day Weekend. Opening in 3,100 locations, Public Enemies could steal about 30M from Fri-Sun and get away with 50M from Wed-Sun.

Returning for its second date, Michael Bay’s Transformers will see a noticeable decline this weekend, although the holiday and lack of any big competition will pad its fall. Last week, Transformers opened to an absurd 201M from Wed-Sun, placing it 2M behind The Dark Knight on the list of biggest five-day openings. The Dark Knight went on to gross 533M domestically, good enough for second place on the all time list (Titanic at 600.7M), but Transformers won’t come close to that mark, seeing that it’s a TERRIBLE movie. The film was about as shockingly predictable as Fred Durst’s decision to direct a black family-comedy starring Ice Cube (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1091751/). I recommend that you all read http://www.toplessrobot.com/2009/06/bonus_robs_transformers_2_faqs.php?page=1, regardless of whether you have seen the film or not. It’s certified fresh by me.

I really hope Transformers gets stood up this weekend, but it’s hard not to say that it will gross at least 50M from Fri-Sun, especially given its strong weekday performances—15M on Monday, 13.5M on Tuesday, 11M on Wednesday. At around 235M domestically, Transformers, in all of its patriotic glory, will cross the 300M mark by the end of the weekend, furthering Michael Bay’s cause for the Governorship of California.

Transforecast- The Transformers Edition

What’s good, what’s good. Welcome to this special Tuesday edition of the box-office forecast (I need a good, funny name for this… any suggestions? Suggestive acronyms welcome). Why so special? Because Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen opens tomorrow, which means I need to come up with a forecast for it now. As you know by now, I don't look at jack when it comes to the actual predictions... it's all just in my gut, you know... it's truthiness.

If you’ve ever wondered why so many recent summer-sequel blockbusters have chosen to open on Wednesday’s, you’ve come to the right place. Huge sequels like Transformers 2 tend to experience equally huge declines after their first weekend of release. By opening on a Wednesday, Transformers is giving itself an extra two days (Wed-Sun) to make bank (and to destroy some evil bad guy around which its lack-of-a-plot revolves) before it inevitably runs into at least a 50% decline in its second weekend. Believe it or not, by the time Monday rolls around, Transformers will have already taken in about 45%-55% of its final domestic total (I looked up all of the summer-sequel blockbusters that have opened on a Wednesday in the last 10 years and found that the first five days account for, on average, 45% of the total).

So here’s what we know so far: Transformers’ final domestic total is going to be tremendous (>300M) and it has five days to make about half of whatever that final number is. If I wanted to, I could probably pick a pretty large number and write it down as my prediction, but that would be boring. If you really like movies, you like to see people go to the movies as well, making weekends like this a lot of fun because there are so many elements that will affect Shia’s potential numbers, the first of which is opening day gross.

After looking up all of the summer-sequels from the last decade that have grossed at least 200M domestically and have opened on a Wednesday, I created a little stat that I’m going to call the Opening Weekend Multiplier (OWM). OWM=Opening Weekend Gross (Fri-Sun) / Opening Day Gross (Wed). The average OWM for those films was 2.86 (excluding Shrek 2), meaning you could, on average, multiply a summer-sequel’s Wednesday gross by 2.86 to get a rough picture of what that film’s Fri-Sun take would be (whoever’s sitting there wandering what the intercept is, you’re lame). The tricky part, thus, is trying to accurately predict how much Transformers will bank on Wednesday.

Back in 2007, the first Transformers movie opened on a Tuesday (July 4th weekend) with 36M from 4,000 theaters, including Monday evening screenings. This time around, the opening day gross should be much higher for two reasons: 1)Sequels always have higher opening day grosses then their predecessors 2)IMAX theaters are pricey and they fit more people. The record for biggest opening day gross is held by The Dark Night at 67M, but don’t expect Michael Bay and Spielberg to break it because… 1)The Dark Knight opened on a Friday 2)The Dark Knight had amazing reviews 3) Heath Ledger.

There are a few other factors which point to a massive opening for Transformers. First of all, it has absolutely no competition. Like I said last week, Transformers has three weeks until Harry Potter comes out (also on a Wednesday), meaning it should have more staying power than your ordinary summer-sequel. Second, Meagan Fox is hot (and she’s officially single), giving guys (and girls) more reason to see it. Third, it has no sporting events to compete with either (why do you think it wasn’t released last week during the US Open? Shut up, Wimbledon fans). Fourth, the special effects are simply the best in the business (wait until December for James Cameron’s “Avatar,” in which he will, once again, change the way we make blockbusters). Fifth, the marketing campaign has been rock solid. Starting with the all-important super-bowl spot back in February, the transformers have been all over the place since. Best of all, the marketers don’t even have to do a good job because sequels, great special effects, and good-looking women market themselves.

Finally, the prediction…. The first Transformers made $49,000 on its first weekend at Shortpump, for those of you from Richmond, and it made $115,000 at Lincoln Square 13 in New York (which happens to be one of the busiest theaters in the country). This weekend, simply expect bigger numbers. The biggest Wednesday opening ever belongs to Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix at $44.2M, but it’s soon going to be second on that list. I’d say the ghost of Optimus watches over these transformers and guides them to a Wednesday opening of 50M-55M, grease and spare parts included. Look for a 50% dip on Thursday for around 25M, and expect its opening weekend (Fri-Sun) take to include about 100M-110M portraits of George Washington. Yes, I’m aware that 50M multiplied by 2.86 does not equal 100M-110M, but I think the upfront demand for Transformers is going to be so high that it negatively affects its opening weekend a bit. That said, the Wed-Sun cume could pass the 175M mark, placing it right below The Dark Knight (203.7M) atop the list of biggest 5-day grosses. Then again, you can never be so sure. All we know is the opening is going to be big and that the autobots will certainly follow Optimus Prime’s advice and roll out.

By the way, get ready for “Transformers 3: The guys who fell got back up again” on July 4th weekend 2012. Seriously, that’s the date.

Week of 6/19/09

What’s good, what’s good… a new box-office forecast for a record second week in a row? Crazy, right? Good news, by the way: I’ve kept my promise and have recently learned to read so there shouldn’t be any theater count errors on my part. Once again, these are all my predictions based off of info on rentrak box office essentials. Alright then, why don’t we get at it?

I’m gonna be honest with you… there’s not much happening in the box-office this weekend at all. We’ve got two wide releases, and they’re both comedies that shouldn’t rock the charts too dramatically. For those of you who are new to box-office analyzing, there is a simple explanation for this frustrating dearth of any potential blockbuster release, and it’s called Meagan Fox. That’s right, Transformers 2, arriving this Wednesday, would, undoubtedly, smother any major action/fantasy release scheduled for this weekend, and, as a result, Warner Bros. is waiting three full weeks to release Harry Potter. If you start counting from last weekend (June 12th), Paramount has managed to clear five weeks (two before, three after) of the SUMMER box-office around Transformers’ release, paving an autobahn for the auto-bots to push the record books with no limits. And, surely, they will.

What we’re left with, this weekend, is one… “Year One,” that is. Starring Jack Black and the ever-awkward Michael Cera, “Year One” follows the two social outcasts as they embark on the first road trip ever. From online ads to tv commercials to NBA finals outtakes, the marketing push for One has been pretty solid, but I don’t think this film will do as well as expected for a few reasons. First and foremost, The Hangover is still hanging on to the box office crown, and it doesn’t seem to be going away any time soon. Declines for the soon-to-be champ of R-rated comedies have been slim during the week, hovering around the low-twenty percent levels (these refer to the declines experienced from Monday-to-Monday, Tuesday-to-Tuesday, etc.), which is pretty remarkable given the genre. Second, Michael Cera, contrary to popular belief, is not a huge box-office draw. Adam Sandler, Will Ferrel, and the Apatow boys are in a separate league when it comes to hit comedies. Don’t believe me? Let’s take a look at his resume, which includes Juno, Super Bad, and Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist. Juno was a box-office sensation, but Michael Cera had little to do with its success. We can credit most of Juno’s glory to its smart distribution plan (it started off in 7 theaters and gradually went to wide in the coming weeks), it’s great word-of-mouth/reviews, the time of year (winter holidays), the oscar buzz surrounding it and Ellen Page’s performance, and certainly its provocative story line. Sure, Cera’s name helped it a little, but not enough for me to think of him as a leading man. Now, look at Super Bad, another extremely successful film starring Cera. Yet, nobody had ever heard of Michael Cera before Super Bad, meaning his name wasn’t what drew in the audiences. Three things were responsible for the success of Super Bad—1) It was advertised as an Apatow movie 2) It was actually pretty good/funny 3) Most importantly, it had a fantastically cut trailer, which people were talking about months in advance of the film. If I can stress anything, it’s the power of a good movie trailer, regardless of genre Slumdog Millionaire, Pineapple Express, Titanic, 300, etc. That leaves us with Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist, a film in which Cera certainly was the leading man and anchor for its potential success. Opening in a 2,400+ theaters, Nick and Norah only grossed $11M in its first weekend, averaging a tepid $4,600 per site. Michael Cera: NOT a safe box-office bet, regardless of his "adorable" awkwardness and attire.

Jack Black, on the other hand, is a legite A-Lister, at least on occasion. Although he has certainly missed the mark with “Margot at the Wedding,” “Tenacious D,” and “Be Kind Rewind,” he has done well with “School of Rock” and “Nacho Libre.” Yet, if you look at his comedies, none of them have come close to the numbers put up by Sandler, Ferrel, Rogen, Rudd, Stiller, etc. Opening in 3,022 locations, Year One will probably collect 22M.

The only other movie opening in wide release is “The Proposal.” Starring Ryan Reynolds and Sandra Bullock, this romantic comedy offers nothing new to the table, whatsoever, although I’m glad to see that Reynolds, following his last performance, in which his mouth was sewn shut as Mutant X in “Wolverine,” has taken a greater artistic challenge by actually having to speak in this film. (He did have a few lines in Wolverine, but not important enough to merit any credit.) Reynolds has been in so many films and so many different genres (horror, comedy, action, romantic comedy, shit), but none of them have grossed more than 65M except for Wolverine. Same goes for Bullock. Her only real “blockbusters” have been “Miss Congeniality” and “Speed,” both of which opened at least more than nine years ago. Suffice it to say, Sandra Bullock has no box-office pull either. What happens if you stick two “stars” with little past success in starring roles of a bland film? Yeah, you get my point. Expect “The Proposal” to get on both knees without putting up much of a fight towards the rest of the box-office with a 15M weekend gross.

We’ve got three holdovers that should continue to bring in audiences this weekend. “Up,” coming off a 30M take from last weekend, should see another small decline of about 35%, which would give it around 20M for a total of close to 230M. I’d expect it to cross the 300M mark eventually, although it may not beat Finding Nemo’s 340M domestic total. Believe it or not, “The Hangover” could put up a pretty good fight against Year One. It only experienced a 27% decline in its second week, but Cera and Black should be able to increase that stat just a little. I’d say Hangover drops 40% and makes about 19M for the frame. Finally, “Pelham 123” had a solid opening last week at 23M and should drop about 45% to around 14M.

Alright, that’s it. Sorry it was a little long. I’ll be back next week when we finally get some real excitement at the box-office with Transformers. Peace. Oh yeah, and I'll post the results later.