Harry Potter Special Edition

What’s good, what’s good. Sorry, I took last weekend off, but it was definitely a Netflix weekend regardless. In that case, I hope you watched some good films because I did—The Talented Mr. Ripley, The Hurt Locker (not Netflix), My Blueberry Nights. You know the deal… I haven’t looked at any predictions, opinions, or tweets regarding this upcoming weekend’s potential box office draw. In fact, I haven’t even looked at my box office database (Rentrak Box Office Essentials) because my friends at Focus Features changed the password on the account I was using (this led to me angrily attempting to guess the password incorrectly five times, resulting in a temporary deactivation of the account). Seeing that I’m allowed four incorrect guesses each hour, I will reacquire that password, hopefully, in the near future, unless they were really in a sour mood and decided to change the username as well. Right then, let’s check out the upcoming box office.

You may be skeptical, but I’ve spoken to the executives at Warner Bros., and I have reason to believe that Harry Potter is returning to theaters today for his sixth feature film. Albeit, there still is about an hour remaining until the midnight screenings end so don’t be surprised if Warner Bros. decides to push the opening back another six months or instructs each theater to split its copy of the film in half, creating demand for the November release of “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince Part II: We Warned You in the Title.” All seriousness aside (anything’s possible), HP looks ready to charm the global box office this week with a Hagrid-esque performance.

It’s been exactly three weeks since the last summer action sequel, “Transformers: Michael Bay ‘10,” opened to a record 62M on a Wednesday, and, based on that “film’s” frighteningly steep decline in recent weeks, it’s safe to say the world is ready to jump back on the Summer-Sequel Express and return to Hogwarts. Although there have been five previous HP films, the only one we need to necessarily analyze is the most recent installment, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, because of its similar release date to The Half-Blood Prince. Phoenix, like Blood Prince (the prequel to “Carrie”), also opened on a Wednesday in the middle of July, grossing a then-record 44M on its opening day. That film went on to collect 140M in its first five days of release (Wed-Sun) and a total of 292M domestically. By comparison, last month’s “Transfat” opened to, once again, 62M on a Wednesday, cheating the public out of roughly 200M in its first five days of release (Wed-Sun) on its way to what will probably be 410M domestically (good enough for 8th all time domestic behind POTC: Dead Man’s Chest).

I hate to upset any Harry Potter fans, but I don’t think HP 6 can reach numbers like 410M domestically for a few reasons. First of all, Harry Potter doesn’t tend to do so well in the United States. The highest any HP film has grossed domestically is 317M, and that was the very first HP film, believe it or not. Surprisingly, out of the 4.4 Billion dollars the five HP films have grossed globally, only 1.4B of that total or 31% has been collected within our borders. Second, Harry Potter 6 is never going to see the type of repeat business some other tent pole releases might witness because it’s part of a very large franchise, and this one doesn’t happen to be the last book in the series. Let me explain: Fans often see a movie for a second time when there are either no plans to create a sequel (yet) or the movie is the last announced installment in a series, meaning that particular film represents the last time a customer can interact with a set of characters or story he/she loves—think Titanic, The Return of the King. Harry Potter 6, while it will see huge upfront demand, won’t last long because there are still two more Harry Potter films waiting to be released. In essence, the problem with adapting a seven-book franchise to the screen is that people will immediately begin to think about the next film in the series after they watch the previous book’s adaption. Third, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince isn’t a very exciting book. It’s merely filler—like our current Pope—an adequate means to a better end.

Yet, there are some reasons why I may be mistaken in estimating the life expectancy of the boy who lived. Not to be undervalued, the tomato-meter is currently showing a 95% out of 107 reviews for HP, meaning the film’s “staying power” could be stronger than previous installments. Aside from the film’s critical reception, we shouldn’t forget that it’s also been two years since the last Harry Potter film or book was released, and, quite frankly, the world needs some more Harry Potter & Co. Ever since WB decided to puss HP back from last November to today, extra buzz and excitement have been spreading around the pic, which can never be bad. Above all else, it’s imperative that HP attracts viewers who have never read the books if it wants to follow in the footsteps of Transformers with a five day opening of 200M. The film’s alleged “dark and sinister” mood should bring in a few illiterate action/effects junkies, and Emma Watson, while she’s certainly no Meagan Fox, is clearly attractive and could help too.

Opening in almost 4,300 theaters, I expect HP 6 to earn 58M on Wednesday en route to a Fri-Sun weekend gross of 90M and a Wed-Sun cume of 178M. In other news, I’d like to congratulate Emma Watson for choosing to attend Columbia next year. If you’re reading this, Emma, you know you want to find your real life Ron Weasley, and who better to play that role than myself? Red hair, boyish charm, athletic bod… need I say more?