
What’s good, what’s good. Welcome to another BO forecast (“It’s gonna smell!”—Ali Williams). It’s July 4th weekend, which means I get to witness my two favorite things in the world: Big numbers at the movies and angry vegetarians. Once again, I have not looked at any forecasts regarding this weekend’s box office slate—just reviews and Rentrak box office essentials. Alright then, let us forecast.
Taking advantage of the long weekend, Fox is releasing its third installment in its profitable “Ice Age” franchise: “The Dawn of the Dinosaurs.” I haven’t seen any of the Ice Age films, but from what I understand, “Dawn” chronicles the tale of a wooly mammoth, a saber-tooth tiger, and a sloth as they discover an underground world inhabited by giant dinosaurs. From time to time, we are also given the perverted pleasure of witnessing a curiously malleable squirrel’s repeated attempts at stealing an acorn as he miraculously survives a myriad of unfortunate events. In light of the film’s release, I do believe Michael Bay is, in fact, suing Fox for stealing his idea, frame by frame, for Transformers 3: The Guys Who Fell Got Back Up Again.
The first two mammal-made pics grossed 176M and 195M, opening to weekend takes of 46M and 68M, but they both opened in March (and not on Wednesday’s). The July 4th weekend, on the other hand, is one of the biggest weekends of the year, and I expect to see huge numbers from “Dawn.” I looked up the ten films that have opened to at least 25M on the July 4th weekend since 1999 and found their average opening weekend gross to be just north of 55M (Note: This pertains to the Fri-Sun frame, not Wed-Sun.) With Pixar’s “Up” quickly fading (it dropped over 40% last weekend), higher ticket prices for 3-D screenings, and an increasing number of young parents turning to alcohol in these difficult times, Ice Age could thaw out about 65M from Friday to Sunday and find itself somewhere in the vicinity of 95M from Wednesday-Sunday.
The second wide-release of the weekend is Michael Mann’s “Public Enemies,” starring Johnny Depp, that woman who won the academy award, and a glorified Keanu Reeves. The film follows hot on the path of John Dillinger, the infamous 1930’s bank robber who rose to fame as he stole from the rich and gave to himself. All in all, Dillinger supposedly robbed eleven banks, pretending to be a bank alarm salesman as well as a scout for Hollywood film locations. He also managed to escape from prison twice without using a Rita Hayworth poster or a chisel.
The closest comparison I see to this film is Ridley Scott’s “American Gangster,” which opened to 43.5M in 2007. Starring The Denzel and Russell Crowe, “Gangster” was also a crime-based period piece helmed by an acclaimed director. I don’t expect Enemies to open as big as Gangster for a few reasons. First of all, the trio of Denzel, Crowe, and Ridley Scott is a much bigger BO draw then that of Depp, Mann, and the ill-tempered batman. Second and most importantly, Public Enemies will not attract the lucrative African-American and Latino populations. Time and again, we’ve seen the BO power of the black population, as witnessed by the 30M+ openings of multiple Tyler Perry films, but white American bank robbers, as opposed to black/Latino American gangsters, just won’t attract such broad demographics. Not surprisingly, the California gross of American Gangster (20.8M) more then doubled the total gross of the film in any other state, including New York (9.3M). In fact, three of the top four grossing states for the film include California, Texas, and Florida—and it doesn’t take a sociologist to figure out why.
Another element that could really hurt PE’s chances is the film’s disappointingly flat critical reception. Although Manohla Dargis gave it a NY Times critique’s pick, most other highly influential film critiques have not been as generous with their praise. Any Michael Mann film, aside from Miami Vice, is going to live and die by its reviews and word-of-mouth as it takes aim at a slightly older and more mature population. Sitting at a lackluster 61% on the “tomato-meter,” Public Enemies may not pick up enough steam in time to escape the authorities on a heavily crowded Independence Day Weekend. Opening in 3,100 locations, Public Enemies could steal about 30M from Fri-Sun and get away with 50M from Wed-Sun.
Returning for its second date, Michael Bay’s Transformers will see a noticeable decline this weekend, although the holiday and lack of any big competition will pad its fall. Last week, Transformers opened to an absurd 201M from Wed-Sun, placing it 2M behind The Dark Knight on the list of biggest five-day openings. The Dark Knight went on to gross 533M domestically, good enough for second place on the all time list (Titanic at 600.7M), but Transformers won’t come close to that mark, seeing that it’s a TERRIBLE movie. The film was about as shockingly predictable as Fred Durst’s decision to direct a black family-comedy starring Ice Cube (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1091751/). I recommend that you all read http://www.toplessrobot.com/2009/06/bonus_robs_transformers_2_faqs.php?page=1, regardless of whether you have seen the film or not. It’s certified fresh by me.
I really hope Transformers gets stood up this weekend, but it’s hard not to say that it will gross at least 50M from Fri-Sun, especially given its strong weekday performances—15M on Monday, 13.5M on Tuesday, 11M on Wednesday. At around 235M domestically, Transformers, in all of its patriotic glory, will cross the 300M mark by the end of the weekend, furthering Michael Bay’s cause for the Governorship of California.
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